2922: Would You Take A Bet That Would Change Your Life? Probably Not. Here’s Why by Nir Eyal

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[00:00:53] Das ist Optimal Finance Daily. Wird du dich bett, dass du dich dein Leben verletzt hast?

[00:00:58] Probably nicht. Hier ist es.

[00:01:00] Bei Nir Eyal von Nir & Far.com. Und ich bin deine host und Personal Finanz Enthusiast, Diana Merriam.

[00:01:09] Welcome back to our Sunday bonus episode,

[00:01:12] where I like to share an article with you from a different podcast in our network.

[00:01:16] Today's episode is coming from our very first podcast, Optimal Living Daily.

[00:01:21] You can find that show wherever you're listening to this.

[00:01:24] And please do follow or subscribe to the show to get new episodes every day.

[00:01:29] So with that, here is Justin with another article as we optimize your life.

[00:01:38] Would you take a bet that would change your life?

[00:01:41] Probably not.

[00:01:42] Here's why by Nir Eyal of Nir & Far.com.

[00:01:48] Changing habits is hard.

[00:01:50] But what if there is a way to dramatically improve your odds of quitting even your worst habits?

[00:01:57] What if this method was shown to be over eight times more effective than traditional methods at helping people quit a stubborn addiction like smoking?

[00:02:05] Would you try it?

[00:02:07] Would you try it?

[00:02:07] The technique involves a wager.

[00:02:10] A recent study published in the New England Journal of Medicine showed that when people put money down,

[00:02:17] they were much more likely to accomplish their goals.

[00:02:20] In this case, people who risked $150 of their own money to win a $650 bonus prize were dramatically more likely to quit smoking than those who used traditional smoking cessation methods.

[00:02:34] Surprisingly, this group also beat out those who were offered an $800 reward with no deposit for staying smoke-free.

[00:02:43] Less attractive, but more effective.

[00:02:47] This technique clearly isn't for everyone.

[00:02:50] In fact, when I think about how I could apply this method to my own life, I cringe.

[00:02:55] There is irony in the fact that I'm scared to use a method I know to be so effective.

[00:03:01] At least I know I'm not alone.

[00:03:03] Very few people in the smoking cessation study agreed to put down the $150 deposit.

[00:03:09] As Nudge author Cass Sunstein wrote,

[00:03:11] Quote,

[00:03:12] Only 13.7% of the participants assigned to the deposit program chose to enroll in it, whereas 90% of those assigned to the reward program chose to enroll.

[00:03:24] End quote.

[00:03:25] The deposit option, according to Sunstein,

[00:03:28] Quote,

[00:03:29] Quote,

[00:03:29] was much less attractive, but much more effective.

[00:03:33] End quote.

[00:03:34] So just how effective?

[00:03:36] Quote,

[00:03:37] 52.3% of those enrolled in the deposit program had sustained abstinence for six months,

[00:03:44] as compared with just 17% of those enrolled in the reward program.

[00:03:49] End quote.

[00:03:49] There's clearly a lost opportunity here.

[00:03:53] But why did so few people take the bet?

[00:03:56] The study authors theorized that $150 might have been too much money for people to risk,

[00:04:02] but another possibility is that people were overly confident in their ability to win the bet.

[00:04:08] Since the value of the reward condition, getting the $800 prize, had a larger net worth,

[00:04:13] $650 minus $150 of their own money,

[00:04:17] perhaps people thought they'd go for the bigger prize if they believed they were just as likely to quit.

[00:04:23] You'd expect the larger reward to have provided more motivation, and clearly it didn't.

[00:04:29] Chalk it up as another demonstration of one of the many quirks of the human psyche.

[00:04:35] Alternatively, people might have chosen the reward over the deposit not because they were overconfident,

[00:04:41] but because they lacked confidence in their ability to kick their habit.

[00:04:46] Perhaps people motivated to quit smoking were scared to put down the deposit

[00:04:50] because they somehow knew they would have to do the hard work of quitting.

[00:04:54] My intuition tells me this is more likely the case, but further research needs to be done.

[00:05:00] When it doesn't work.

[00:05:03] While this technique can prove effective, there are also many faults to this method.

[00:05:07] First, the most obvious weakness is that so few people are actually willing to take such a wager.

[00:05:13] My guess is that the biggest barrier to people not taking the bet is the imposition on their freedom.

[00:05:20] Previously, I've written about the psychological phenomenon of reactance,

[00:05:25] our tendency to reject threats to our autonomy.

[00:05:28] People generally don't like being told what to do, and taking the bet can feel restrictive.

[00:05:33] However, giving people the freedom to choose has been shown to increase compliance.

[00:05:39] Perhaps offering a limited number of cheat passes may disarm reactants

[00:05:43] by reminding participants that quitting is still their choice.

[00:05:48] Second, I doubt this technique would prove effective at stopping behaviors with constant triggers.

[00:05:54] For example, nail biting is a devilishly hard habit to break

[00:05:58] because biters are constantly tempted whenever they become aware of their hands.

[00:06:03] These body-focused repetitive behaviors are not good candidates for using this technique.

[00:06:09] Finally, and perhaps worst of all, this technique does not accommodate failure.

[00:06:14] Even in the smoking cessation study, some 48% of the participants in the most successful group

[00:06:20] did not achieve their goal.

[00:06:22] Behavior change is hard, and people will inevitably fail.

[00:06:27] Therefore, any long-term behavior modification program must accommodate those who, for one reason or another,

[00:06:35] can't stick with the program.

[00:06:37] While the wager method is more effective at stopping certain behaviors for certain people,

[00:06:42] it is not a perfect program.

[00:06:44] This technique is yet another tool for healthful behavior modification that works under the right circumstances.

[00:06:51] Here's the gist.

[00:06:53] The wager technique provides a consequence for doing or not doing a particular behavior.

[00:06:58] The threat of losing money can encourage certain behaviors while deterring others.

[00:07:04] While effective at changing certain behaviors, the wager technique has several limitations,

[00:07:09] including few people are willing to take the bet,

[00:07:12] the technique is not appropriate for changing behaviors with triggers that cannot be avoided.

[00:07:17] For example, nail biting would not be a good behavior to attempt to change using this technique.

[00:07:22] And, the program does not accommodate failure.

[00:07:30] You just listened to the post titled,

[00:07:33] Would you take a bet that would change your life?

[00:07:35] Probably not.

[00:07:36] Here's why, by Nir Eyal of nearandfar.com

[00:07:40] Buy low, sell high.

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[00:09:13] Thank you to Nir.

[00:09:15] It's an interesting one.

[00:09:16] I can't remember ever in my life putting money up to build a habit.

[00:09:21] Although this is something I'm going to talk about in tomorrow's episode as a possible option.

[00:09:26] I get what he's saying because when I personally think about why I haven't used this tactic,

[00:09:31] I think it's that fear of loss, losing that money, which like he said,

[00:09:35] could stem from a lack of confidence in myself to actually get it done.

[00:09:40] In the case of building an exercise habit, my mind might go to,

[00:09:44] but what about when I'm traveling?

[00:09:46] What if I'm sick or really busy?

[00:09:49] These are not great excuses to not get moving, but that's where the mind can go.

[00:09:54] And by the time it comes back around to thinking about that bet,

[00:09:57] it's like, oh, well, there are too many factors outside of my control,

[00:10:01] and I might not be able to make it happen.

[00:10:04] And I don't want to lose the money.

[00:10:06] So we don't take the bet.

[00:10:07] Even though, like Nir mentioned, we're upping our odds of success significantly.

[00:10:12] It's a huge difference in success rate.

[00:10:15] But just thinking about whether or not we're willing to put up money to change this habit can be enlightening.

[00:10:21] It could get at the root of the issue.

[00:10:23] We'll see where our minds take us to get out of doing that bet.

[00:10:28] Maybe we can use that knowledge to fight back and improve our odds of success.

[00:10:32] So I suggest just even thinking about that today.

[00:10:35] Would you take that bet?

[00:10:37] Why or why not?

[00:10:39] Feel free to share the answer with me.

[00:10:41] You can always get in touch at oldpodcast.com

[00:10:43] or by replying to my weekly newsletter, which you can also find at oldpodcast.com.

[00:10:48] Have a great rest of your day and I'll see you tomorrow where in my commentary,

[00:10:52] I'll share a bit more about this idea and where your optimal life awaits.