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Episode 3572:
Chris Reining explains why retirement planning is less about predicting the future and more about preparing for uncertainty. Using the Apollo 13 disaster as a powerful analogy, he breaks down how the 4% rule was specifically designed to survive even the worst market conditions, while reminding readers that adaptability matters just as much as strategy.
Read along with the original article(s) here: https://chrisreining.com/plan-predict/
Quotes to ponder:
“It’s probably okay to use a higher initial withdrawal, but you use the rules because it’s impossible to predict how the future unfolds.”
“The reason the 4% rule works during recessions is because the 4% rule is based on the worst possible historical scenarios.”
“Withdrawing that initial 4% incorporates someone who retires on the cusp of some financial nightmare: the depression, dot-com bubble, recent recession.”
Episode references:
Michael Kitces on the 4% Rule: https://www.kitces.com/blog/monte-carlo-analysis-risk-fat-tails-vs-safe-withdrawal-rates-rolling-historical-returns/
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